Other countries attempted to learn the lesson of Italy as Covid-19 spread. All too often they learnt the wrong lesson: don’t overwhelm your hospital system – flatten the curve. I argue that this is the wrong starting point. The optimal solution is to get to where South Korea and Iceland were before the number infected is too high to contain; second-best is a lockdown to bring infections under control, followed by the optimal solution.
@techreport{machanick-Italy-Covid19-2020,
Author = {Philip Machanick},
Date-Added = {2020-06-08 13:51:05 +0000},
Date-Modified = {2020-06-08 13:52:23 +0000},
Institution = {Rhodes University},
Keywords = {Covid-19, epidemiology, flattening the curve},
Month = {June},
Number = {PM-CS-2020-06-03},
Title = {The Correct Covid-19 Lesson from Italy},
doi = {10.13140/RG.2.2.24405.65767},
url = {https://homes.cs.ru.ac.za/philip/Publications/Techreports/2020/Covid_19_not_like_Italy/Covid_19_not_like_Italy.pdf},
Year = {2020}
}